A Cyprus Settlement in 2004? Policy Implications for Turkey,
NATO and
the EU: The EU Perspective
Remarks by
Jonathan Davidson
Political, Academic and Justice
& Home Affairs Section
European Commission Delegation, Washington
Western Policy Center
Conference
February 26, 2004
Introduction
The
EU’s role this year hinges on two well known, immutable, separate, but
related, events:
Behind
these two dry facts lie historic challenges and opportunities.
Cyprus/EU
The
accession of
Cyprus to the EU is not in doubt. The question is whether or not all
Cypriots will fully benefit from EU accession as of May 1. Legally the whole
island will join the EU and the application of the
acquis will be suspended
in the northern part of the island pending a settlement. The EU sees the
window between now and May 1 as a historic opportunity to solve the problem
on the basis of the Annan plan, in time for a united Cyprus to join the EU.
The EU
has always made plain its preference for the accession of a united Cyprus,
without making unification a pre-condition. For strategic, political, and
technical reasons, the EU would prefer to welcome a united Cyprus as a
member of the Union. The EU always tries to avoid importing political or
territorial disputes into the Union. As
President Prodi said when the new talks were announced this month,
“There is no place for barbed wires, minefields and peacekeeping forces in
the EU.” He added that the chances for a comprehensive settlement have
never been better.
The EU
is not a party to the negotiations. However there is close cooperation
between the EU and the various negotiating parties to ensure that the
technical and legal aspects of EU membership are adequately covered in the
settlement, if an agreement is reached. At the same time the EU is placing
its political weight fully behind SG Annan’s efforts to forge an agreement,
and the Commission is doing everything it can on its part to ensure a
successful outcome. Support of the UN talks is one of the Commission’s top
priorities. Commissioner
Verheugen went to Nicosia for the kick-off of the talks last week, and we sent experts
to provide legal advice and active support for Mr. Alvara
de Soto. We are ready to
organise an international donors conference following a settlement, and are
planning for a pre-conference to take place before the referenda.
In
support of efforts to bring about a settlement, last June the EU launched a
goodwill package with direct benefits for the people of northern Cyprus to
help bring them closer to the EU. We took practical steps to promote trade,
and provided €12 million aid. The European Union has foreseen another €259
million for the north in the pipeline for 2004-6 in the event of a
settlement.
This
EU package was one of a number of steps last year which helped create a
climate in which the people of Cyprus were able to show they are
ready—indeed keen—to live peacefully together. This is one of the factors
which in turn helped bring the negotiations back to life.
Turkey/EU
Turkey’s
relations with the EU date back over forty years to the 1963 Association
Agreement. Since 1999 Turkey has been recognized as a candidate for EU
membership, with the same rights, benefits and obligations as other
candidate countries. To help make the far reaching and difficult reforms
necessary to meet the accession criteria, Turkey gets a full panoply of EU
benefits. Turkey now can take part in many resource-rich EU programs
available only to EU members and those on the verge of membership, and gets
generous aid (€250 rising to €500 million a year in 2006), geared mainly to
help Turkey
prepare for eventual membership.
Settlement of the
Cyprus
problem has never been a condition of Turkish membership. The dispute,
however, has always been a cloud over Turkey’s application. Turkey itself
has now recognized the political reality that without positive steps to help
bring about a settlement its own EU membership aspirations would be in
jeopardy. The newly kindled optimism about a possible settlement by May 1 is
a reflection, in part, of
Turkey’s
acceptance of this political reality and the important decisions the Turkish
government took recently to help relaunch negotiations under UN auspices.
EU
Membership Negotiations?
The
European Commission will deliver its recommendation in autumn this year. It
will be based on the same methodology we use for all candidate countries,
and will be an objective technical assessment of whether Turkey meets the
political criteria.
Turkey’s
progress in this direction was recognized in the Commission’s November 5,
2003
Regular Report and Enlargement Strategy Paper, which welcomed
the accelerated pace of reforms, the determined efforts and the significant
progress Turkey had made towards meeting the political criteria. This
reflects the profound change in the EU’s relations with Turkey over the past
two years, as the reforms have gathered pace and as our dialogue on the whole
range of political questions—including the most sensitive areas of human
rights, freedom of expression and the role of the military in political
decisions—have been squarely on the table.
The
Commission’s report said further efforts were needed especially in the areas
of:
-
strengthening the independence and functioning of the judiciary;
- the
framework for exercising the fundamental freedoms of association,
expression, and religion;
-
further alignment of civil-military relations with European practice;
-
improving the situation in the Southeast; and
-
cultural rights.
The
EU continues to be impressed with the progress and the commitment of the AKP
government. At the
same time our
governments, legislators and the Commission continually point to the
considerable remaining hurdles. In particular I believe the Turkish
Government recognizes the importance the EU attaches to effective
implementation at all levels of government of the important legislative,
constitutional and regulatory reforms they have adopted over the past couple
of years. This is an important part of convincing public and parliamentary
opinion in Europe of the case for eventual Turkish membership. While EU
policy is unequivocally in favor of Turkish accession provided the criteria
are met, there’s no point in denying that we still have some way to go to
persuade some sectors of European public opinion that this is the right
course.
Wider Europe
For
the EU, strengthening our relations with Turkey, leading to eventual EU
membership, is of strategic importance:
-
Turkey is an anchor of stability in one of the potential tinder boxes of
the
world, at
the
intersection of
the
Middle East, Caucasus and
the
Caspian energy
corridor. It is a bridge par excellence from Europe to Central Asia.
-
Turkey can help promote peace, stability and prosperity in
the
Mediterranean and
neighboring regions of North Africa, the Middle East and
the
Gulf.
-
Turkey can be pivotal in the post-Saddam era in helping to build a new
order in the wider Middle East, of as much importance to Europe as it is
to the US.
-
By definition Turkey must play a central role in resolving Aegean
tensions.
-
In the wake of
9/11 and the tragic attacks in Istanbul last year, we share interests
in fighting terrorism.
The
EU works closely with
Turkey to improve border controls and track terrorists.
-
Turkey plays a constructive role in bolstering security in
the
Balkans.
-
Over half Turkey’s external trade is with the EU, compared with some 8-9%
with the US. The Customs Union in place for nine years has boosted our
economic relations, we believe for mutual benefit.
-
Turkey will make a valuable contribution to the increasingly diverse
fabric of the European Union. Turkey combines rich elements of European
and Islamic history and culture with the aspirations of a young and modern
nation seeking to anchor itself firmly in the West as a pluralistic
democracy and vibrant market economy.
Conclusions
This is a climactic year for Turkey, Cyprus and the EU. We should not
underestimate the challenges still ahead. Nor should we over-dramatize the
risks of failure. We hear less talk these days of train wrecks—diplomats and
political leaders are hired to avert them. The EU’s clear preferences are
for a united Cyprus and for continued political reform in Turkey leading to
negotiations on EU membership. But the EU has learned to live with
disappointments. We will soldier on and manage the consequences if there are
setbacks.
A
decision to open negotiations with Turkey would launch the next chapter in
the historic process of peacefully unifying our continent and anchoring
Turkey firmly in Europe. It is of crucial importance, therefore, for Turkey
to continue to do everything possible to meet the political criteria.
Everyone involved realizes that negotiations will be long and complex. But
the eventual prize of Turkey in the EU is a win-win-win proposition. It will
bring strategic and practical benefits to the EU, to Turkey and to the
United States.
Meanwhile, to continue and conclude on this upbeat note: if all the roses
bloom—if Cyprus is united and if Turkey wins a favorable decision in
December—this will turn out to be a banner year for peace, progress and
stability for everyone in the Eastern Mediterranean; a year of truly
historic achievement for both Europe and the US; and—as a bonus—an important
step in repairing and renewing our
transatlantic partnership.
